Predicting the federal election

It's always dangerous picking the winner of an election, but it should be pretty clear to just about everyone now who's going to win. The question remains, by how much.

So going out on a limb somewhat, I'm going to call it for a Labor landslide. It might not translate into a landslide of seats though, but the two-party preferred vote will have a margin of at least 12%. They'll scrape over the line in the Senate with either an outright majority or have to rely on The Greens in the Senate, but will at least extinguish the Tory majority there and hopefully silence the religious nutjobs.

Tasmania will be a clean Labor sweep, and the pulp mill will thus be canned shortly after the election, though Gunns will get mightily compensated in some way for it.

What's your prediction?

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